Metro area index
Home appreciation in the Merced, CA metro area
FHFA HPI® data shows the Merced, CA metro area's all-transactions index changed -0.0% over the year to Q2 2026, versus +0.9% for California and +3.0% for the U.S. That ranks 362nd of 410 metro areas and divisions FHFA tracks.
- 1-year change
- -0.0%
- 5-year change
- +26.4%
- Since Q1 1995
- +271%
- Metro rank (1 year)
- 362nd
U.S. +3.0%
U.S. +41.3%
U.S. +292%
of 410
Merced, CA vs California and the U.S.
FHFA HPI® all-transactions index, rebased so Q1 1995 = 100, through Q2 2026
- Merced, CA: 371.4
- California: 488.5
- United States: 391.6
Appreciation by time window
| Window | Metro | CA | U.S. | Gap vs CA | Gap vs U.S. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 year | -0.0% | +0.9% | +3.0% | −0.9 pts | −3.0 pts |
| 3 years | +4.0% | +7.7% | +12.9% | −3.6 pts | −8.8 pts |
| 5 years | +26.4% | +28.1% | +41.3% | −1.7 pts | −14.9 pts |
| 10 years | +89.6% | +76.2% | +93.3% | +13.5 pts | −3.7 pts |
| Since Q1 1995 | +271% | +388% | +292% | −117.1 pts | −20.1 pts |
3-digit ZIP regions in the Merced, CA area
Regions with at least 10% of their 2010 population inside the metro, largest overlap first. A 3-digit ZIP region can extend beyond the metro boundary.
| 3-digit ZIP region | State | 1 year | 5 years | Since Q1 1995 | Population in metro |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 953 · Modesto, CA area | CA | +0.9% | +21.9% | +284% | 20% |
Boom, bust, and recovery in Merced, CA area
Merced, CA area's index peaked in Q2 2006, fell 65.0% to its low in Q2 2011, and regained its peak in Q4 2021, about 15.5 years after the top. Today it sits +16.2% versus that 2000s peak. How every state and ZIP region fared
| Area | 2000s peak | Low point | Peak to low | Back to peak | Today vs peak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metro | Q2 2006 | Q2 2011 | -65.0% | Q4 2021 (15.5 yrs) | +16.2% |
| CA | Q3 2006 | Q1 2012 | -41.0% | Q2 2019 (12.8 yrs) | +50.9% |
| U.S. | Q1 2007 | Q2 2012 | -19.0% | Q4 2016 (9.8 yrs) | +89.3% |
Appreciation after inflation
Adjusting for consumer price inflation, Merced, CA area's index has changed +67.8% in real terms since Q1 1995. Home prices vs inflation
| Window | Inflation (CPI-U) | Metro after inflation | CA after inflation | U.S. after inflation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 year | +3.9% | -3.7% | -2.9% | -0.8% |
| 3 years | +9.8% | -5.3% | -1.9% | +2.8% |
| 5 years | +24.0% | +1.9% | +3.3% | +13.9% |
| 10 years | +39.1% | +36.3% | +26.7% | +39.0% |
| Since Q1 1995 | +121% | +67.8% | +121% | +76.8% |
If you bought in the Merced, CA area in…
An example $300,000 purchase grown at the metro index rate to Q2 2026.
| Bought in | Index change | $300,000 then, at the metro rate |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 1995 | +280% | $1,138,712 |
| Q2 2000 | +215% | $945,545 |
| Q2 2005 | +34.7% | $404,234 |
| Q2 2010 | +217% | $950,708 |
| Q2 2015 | +106% | $616,789 |
| Q2 2020 | +46.6% | $439,903 |
| Q2 2021 | +26.4% | $379,299 |
| Q2 2023 | +4.0% | $312,127 |
| Q2 2025 | -0.0% | $299,968 |
Frequently asked questions
- How much have home prices risen in the Merced, CA area?
- FHFA HPI® data for the Merced, CA metro area shows changes of -0.0% over one year, +26.4% over five years, and +89.6% over ten years to Q2 2026, and +271% since Q1 1995.
- Is the Merced, CA area beating the national average?
- Over the past year the metro's index moved −3.0 pts versus the U.S.; over five years the gap is −14.9 pts.
- What area does this metro index cover?
- FHFA computes metro indexes using the counties in each OMB-defined metropolitan statistical area. The index covers the whole area, so individual neighborhoods and homes can differ from it.