3-digit ZIP regional index
Home appreciation in ZIP codes 953xxModesto, CA area
FHFA HPI® data shows the regional home price index for ZIP codes beginning with 953 changed +0.9% over the year to Q2 2026, compared with +0.9% for California and +3.0% for the United States.
The region covers ZIP codes 95301–95391. Most of its 2010 population lived in Stanislaus County (50%), San Joaquin County (22%), Merced County (20%). Communities in the region include Tracy, Merced, Turlock, Manteca, Ceres. This is a regional index, not a ZIP5, street, or individual-home estimate.
- 1-year change
- +0.9%
- 5-year change
- +21.9%
- Since Q1 1995
- +284%
- National rank (1 year)
- 766th
Year to Q2 2026
vs U.S. +41.3%
vs U.S. +292%
of 882 ZIP3 regions
ZIP3 953 vs California and the U.S.
FHFA HPI® all-transactions index, rebased so Q1 1995 = 100, through Q2 2026
- ZIP3 953: 383.9
- California: 488.5
- Modesto, CA metro: 401.5
- United States: 391.6
Want a different starting year? Rebase this chart or compare with another ZIP3.
Appreciation by time window
| Window | ZIP3 953 | CA | U.S. | Gap vs CA | Gap vs U.S. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 year | +0.9% | +0.9% | +3.0% | +0.0 pts | −2.1 pts |
| 3 years | +5.1% | +7.7% | +12.9% | −2.6 pts | −7.7 pts |
| 5 years | +21.9% | +28.1% | +41.3% | −6.2 pts | −19.3 pts |
| 10 years | +81.5% | +76.2% | +93.3% | +5.3 pts | −11.8 pts |
| Since Q1 1995 | +284% | +388% | +292% | −104.6 pts | −7.7 pts |
If you bought in ZIP3 953 in…
Applying the regional index change from the same quarter of each year to Q2 2026 to an example $300,000 purchase price. Individual homes can differ widely from the regional average.
| Bought in | Index change | $300,000 then, at the regional rate |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 1995 | +282% | $1,147,250 |
| Q2 2000 | +217% | $951,508 |
| Q2 2005 | +41.0% | $422,873 |
| Q2 2010 | +183% | $847,520 |
| Q2 2015 | +96.7% | $590,206 |
| Q2 2020 | +42.5% | $427,488 |
| Q2 2021 | +21.9% | $365,823 |
| Q2 2023 | +5.1% | $315,320 |
| Q2 2025 | +0.9% | $302,745 |
How ZIP3 953 ranks
Over the past year ZIP3 953 ranks 766th of 882 3-digit ZIP regions nationally and 33rd of 57 in California. Its one-year change is −2.1 pts versus the nation and +0.0 pts versus California. Rank 1 is the strongest appreciation.
| Window | National rank | Rank in California |
|---|---|---|
| 1 year | 766th of 882 | 33rd of 57 |
| 3 years | 821st of 882 | 41st of 57 |
| 5 years | 850th of 882 | 41st of 57 |
| 10 years | 582nd of 882 | 24th of 57 |
| Since Q1 1995 | 360th of 879 | 49th of 57 |
Boom, bust, and recovery in ZIP3 953
ZIP3 953's index peaked in Q1 2006, fell 59.0% to its low in Q1 2012, and regained its peak in Q2 2021, about 15.2 years after the top. Today it sits +25.4% versus that 2000s peak. How every state and ZIP region fared
| Area | 2000s peak | Low point | Peak to low | Back to peak | Today vs peak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ZIP3 953 | Q1 2006 | Q1 2012 | -59.0% | Q2 2021 (15.2 yrs) | +25.4% |
| CA | Q3 2006 | Q1 2012 | -41.0% | Q2 2019 (12.8 yrs) | +50.9% |
| Metro | Q1 2006 | Q1 2012 | -60.9% | Q2 2021 (15.2 yrs) | +28.6% |
| U.S. | Q1 2007 | Q2 2012 | -19.0% | Q4 2016 (9.8 yrs) | +89.3% |
Appreciation after inflation
Adjusting for consumer price inflation, ZIP3 953's index has changed +73.4% in real terms since Q1 1995. Home prices vs inflation
| Window | Inflation (CPI-U) | ZIP3 953 after inflation | CA after inflation | Metro after inflation | U.S. after inflation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 year | +3.9% | -2.8% | -2.9% | -1.1% | -0.8% |
| 3 years | +9.8% | -4.3% | -1.9% | -1.1% | +2.8% |
| 5 years | +24.0% | -1.7% | +3.3% | +1.4% | +13.9% |
| 10 years | +39.1% | +30.5% | +26.7% | +35.7% | +39.0% |
| Since Q1 1995 | +121% | +73.4% | +121% | +81.3% | +76.8% |
Estimate appreciation for a home in ZIP3 953
Regional estimate
$544,496
- Estimated gain
- $244,496
- Index change
- +81.50%
- Start index
- 211.50
- End index
- 383.87
ZIP3 953 (Modesto, CA area), Q2 2016 to Q2 2026. Index type: Native 3-Digit ZIP index.
Nearby 3-digit ZIP regions
| 3-digit ZIP region | State | 1 year | 5 years | Since Q1 1995 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 952 · Stockton, CA area | CA | -1.8% | +20.5% | +277% |
| 951 · San Jose, CA area | CA | -0.4% | +31.2% | +501% |
| 950 · Santa Clara, CA area | CA | +0.2% | +20.7% | +383% |
| 945 · Fremont, CA area | CA | +0.8% | +17.0% | +362% |
| 943 · Palo Alto, CA area | CA | -1.4% | +29.7% | +471% |
| 958 · Sacramento, CA area | CA | +1.4% | +20.9% | +341% |
Recent quarterly index values
| Period | Index |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 383.87 |
| Q1 2026 | 383.87 |
| Q4 2025 | 382.69 |
| Q3 2025 | 385.02 |
| Q2 2025 | 380.39 |
| Q1 2025 | 385.63 |
| Q4 2024 | 381.70 |
| Q3 2024 | 382.38 |
| Q2 2024 | 379.22 |
| Q1 2024 | 372.51 |
| Q4 2023 | 367.88 |
| Q3 2023 | 367.17 |
Frequently asked questions
- How much have home prices risen in ZIP codes starting with 953?
- Based on FHFA HPI® data for 3-digit ZIP region 953, the regional index changed +0.9% over the year to Q2 2026, +21.9% over five years, +81.5% over ten years, and +284% since Q1 1995.
- Is ZIP3 953 appreciating faster than California and the U.S.?
- Over the past year the region's index +0.9% compares with +0.9% for California and +3.0% for the U.S., a gap of −2.1 pts versus the nation. Over five years the gap versus the nation is −19.3 pts.
- Which ZIP codes are in 3-digit ZIP region 953?
- All ZIP codes that begin with 953. Census 2010 ZIP Code Tabulation Areas in this region run from 95301 to 95391 (70 areas). FHFA publishes one index for the whole 3-digit region, not for each 5-digit ZIP code.
- Can I use this to value my home?
- No. The FHFA HPI® is a broad regional index of average price movement. It is not an appraisal, tax assessment, or automated valuation of any individual property. Use it as general context alongside local sales and a professional opinion.